Price build-up
Scenarios
Org cost impact
Sensitivity
Crude cost (₹/litre)
—
converted from US$ basket
Total central excise (₹/litre)
—
BED + SAED + AIDC + Road cess
State VAT (₹/litre)
—
ad valorem on pre-VAT total
Fair retail price (₹/litre)
—
vs frozen ₹87.62 (Delhi)
Component Formula / source ₹/litre
Each scenario uses current state/tax inputs. Only crude (US$/bbl) and exchange rate vary per scenario.
Retail diesel price by state across scenarios (₹/litre)
Daily fleet consumption
—
litres/day (whole fleet)
Annual fuel spend (frozen ₹87.62)
—
₹ crore / year
Annual fuel spend (fair price)
—
₹ crore / year
Additional annual exposure
—
₹ crore / year
Scenario Diesel (₹/litre) Annual fuel (₹ crore) Extra vs today Op cost rise Freight rate needed
Sensitivity of retail diesel price (₹/litre) to India basket crude (US$/bbl) and USD/INR rate. All other inputs held at current values. Colour: green ≤₹90 · amber ₹90–110 · red ₹110–140 · dark red >₹140 .
Sensitivity matrix — retail diesel (₹/litre)
Excise duty lever — effect of ±₹5/litre SAED change
Current fair price
—
at current inputs
If SAED cut ₹5/litre
—
saving per litre
If SAED raised ₹5/litre
—
extra burden per litre
Built using PPAC / MoPNG pricing formula · Excise rates as at April 2025 (SAED ₹10, AIDC ₹4, Road cess ₹2, BED ₹1.80) ·
State VAT rates per PPAC VAT table ·
Frozen retail price ₹87.62/litre (Delhi, effective 15 March 2024) ·
This model is for planning purposes only — verify live rates at ppac.gov.in
